China : Towards a Confrontation with the West ?
Today I will to outline the reasons why I foresee a conflict between China and the West before 2030. I will present the six reasons that, in my opinion, will lead to such a conflict. First, I will provide a historical overview to trace China’s path to the present day.
I. What is China ?
China, a vast Asian country with a history spanning several millennia, holds the second place in terms of global population and economic power.
China was the world’s leading power between 1500 and around 1850, before Westerners made contact for trade. Refusing to open up to the Western world (unlike Japan), China had to face several wars on its territory, as all European countries sought to establish colonies in Asia.
In 1887, France invaded Indochina, while Portugal took Macao in 1899, and Spain the Philippines in 1821 (later acquired by the United States in 1898). China was humiliated and conquered by Western powers during the two Opium Wars in 1839 and 1856.
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China and its major cities.
Now a vassal state, China lost its last dynasty in 1912 and descended into a civil war between nationalists and communists. In 1937, Japan, which had earlier embraced technological advancements, launched a conquest war in China, taking advantage of the prevailing chaos caused by the civil war.
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Imperial Japan and its 10 years of conquest in Asia.
World War II comes to an end globally, but the civil war between communists and nationalists continues in China. The remaining nationalists take refuge on the island of Taiwan, where they remain to this day. This is why China asserts that Taiwan is part of its territory.
Once the civil war was won by the communists, a communist policy was implemented, but like all communist policies, it did not succeed. In the 1980s, China began gradually opening up to foreigners and capitalism. Between 1980 and 2000, the Chinese GDP multiplied by 4.
In 2000, China’s GDP represented 3% of the global GDP, but by 2020, it reached 18%. This is a remarkable growth for China, which in the span of 40 years, transitioned from a communist country ravaged by poverty to becoming the second largest global power.
Now that China’s wealth corresponds to its weight in the world, the country aspires to regain its regional hegemonic power, as it has always done.
Evolution of Chinese GDP.
II. Facing China, the hegemonic power of America.
The West, what is it ? The West comprises European states as well as all their former settler colonies that have become independent. This includes Europe, North America, Australia, and New Zealand.
The West is THE superpower that emerges victorious from the Second World War.
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In dark blue, North America and Europe, and in light blue, allies of the West, more or less close.
It had to face an ideological war, employing propaganda, proxy wars, and economic warfare through embargoes, with the USSR and Russia at its helm.
In 1991, the total collapse of the USSR was a complete victory for the West. Since then, the United States has become the global hegemonic power, controlling world affairs through its military, alliances, and policies.
On one side, we have a China experiencing a geopolitical renaissance, and on the other, the United States has consolidated its power. In the United States, freedom is the most precious value, and to be free, one must be first, without equal. Thus, the security and prosperity of the United States depend on maintaining their status as the sole global superpower.
III. Here are 6 reasons why the confrontation could happen.
1/ The world has changed since 1945.
Specifically, countries around the world regularly convene to decide on peace treaties, alliances, and to freeze known power dynamics at a given moment. These treaties hold until the next power shift, and so on. The most recent one dates back to 1945, when the victorious and defeated countries of the Second World War sat around a table to discuss the fate of the world.
Since 1945, many things have changed. Empires have fallen, including those of France and England, as well as that of the USSR. Many countries are beginning to emerge as regional powers, such as the BRICS nations. We increasingly see countries challenging this world order, notably by refusing to recognize certain international institutions.
Furthermore, some countries, like China and Russia, feel strong enough to assert their independence.
Thus, more and more countries are exerting pressure on the United States and the West to renegotiate the world order and encourage them to relinquish power.
The BRICS were established in 2009 at the initiative of China. It is an organization that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
2/ Within China, there are two political partie.
A liberal political parties and a nationalist one (Chinese-style communist nationalism). Within China, two currents are distinguishable: the liberal political parties and the nationalist political parties . These two political parties coexist within the Chinese Communist Party, and since the end of the Mao era, the party has sought to reconcile these divergences.
Traditionally, the presidency of the country, and thus that of the Chinese Communist Party, changes every ten years, alternating between the liberal and nationalist currents. However, this tradition was broken in 2022, with the reelection of Xi Jinping as the leader of China after ten years of rule. Xi Jinping belongs to the nationalist current and orchestrated the arrest of his predecessor, who was close to the liberal current, during the party congress at the end of 2022. Under the pretext of a vast anti-corruption campaign, many members of the liberal current have been sidelined or disappeared, in favor of members of the nationalist current. The latest to be sidelined is the former Prime Minister, who was affiliated with the liberal parties .
Ousting of former Chinese President, Hu Jintao (liberal faction), during the Communist Party congress in 2022.
3/ Economic crisis.
A deep economic crisis is brewing in China, despite appearances. This situation largely stems from the one-child policy implemented in the country.
Since 1979, it has been forbidden in China to have more than one child per couple in urban areas and two children in rural areas. This policy was completely abandoned in 2022 with the lifting of penalties for having more than three children. This measure helped China avoid overpopulation, which was once feared. However, it has led to an aging population. The number of births has significantly decreased, from 19 million to 9 million babies per year over the past twenty years. The Chinese population is aging rapidly, with an average age of 39 years.
In recent years, China has experienced a decline in its working-age population due to this demographic policy. China cannot compensate for this decline through immigration policy, as it would require a significant population influx, which few countries have in surplus, but that is not something Chinese government wants to do.
The decline in birth rates has a negative impact on consumption, real estate purchases, and other economic activities. This low economic dynamism, combined with rising wage costs, has led to high youth unemployment, exceeding 25% according to the latest study published by the Chinese government, which has since ceased publishing such data.
This economic downturn situation could prompt the country to turn to war to divert attention from the population and regain its status as a global leader, thus providing a rallying purpose. For the first time in forty years, foreign investors have withdrawn more money from the country than they have invested. Moreover, the rapid aging of the Chinese population creates social and economic imbalances, exacerbating the crisis.
Unsold real estate.
4/ One child policy.
Since the implementation of the one-child policy, Chinese couples are generally limited to having only one child (I won’t go into the exceptions here). This policy has resulted in a demographic imbalance, with a predominance of boys over girls due to selective abortion favoring the birth of boys. Thus, in the overall Chinese population, there are 106 men for every 100 women. However, for younger generations subject to the one-child policy, this ratio is higher, with 118 men for every 100 women among those aged 15-25.
In 2005, there were 32 million more men under the age of 20 than women in China, a phenomenon of significant economic and social consequences.
Economically, this has led to an increase in the dowry demanded by Chinese women for marriage (a practice prohibited but tolerated), which can amount to the equivalent of an apartment or house in some cases. Thus, men must save or ask their family for money to marry and start a family, as they are usually only children.
Most dowries consist of real estate assets, which represent a significant portion of China’s GDP. However, this sector is currently stagnating because the dowry demanded is often too high for many Chinese, equivalent to about ten years of average salary.
Due to the inability to get married, many men fall into depression and loneliness, which can pose a challenge for the Chinese government in terms of social and political stability.
Indeed, having several million depressed singles of fighting age (or capable of leading a revolution) represents a major problem for a dictatorship.
On the military side, the surplus of male population provides China with a potential reserve of soldiers, without significant demographic consequences in the event of war. This could potentially be exploited in armed conflicts, allowing China to mobilize tens of millions of men of fighting age.
While this reasoning may seem cold, in a communist regime, it is plausible to consider that it could be taken into account, especially since the window of opportunity will soon close with the end of the one-child policy. Thus, a deadly war would offer China the opportunity to “reduce” its surplus of male population while pursuing territorial conquests.
5/ Thucydides’s Trap.
The concept of the Thucydides Trap, originating from international relations, describes a situation where a dominant power finds itself in conflict with a rising power, with the former motivated by fear triggered by the latter’s ascent.
In other words, it’s a dynamic where a power, already established as dominant, perceives a potential threat in the emergence of another power, even if it hasn’t yet reached its full potential.
A historical example is that of Germany and Russia in 1914: despite Germany’s rapid economic development, it already felt threatened by Russia, which, although in the industrialization phase, was on track to become a major power on the European continent.
This pattern repeats itself several times throughout history. Applied to China, this could lead to considering India as a potential threat.
With a larger population, dynamic demographics, and continuously progressing economic development, India could surpass China in terms of power and regional influence by 2050.
While speculative, this scenario could prompt China to take preventive measures, including involvement in the Himalayan region.
Therefore, I believe that China could seek to consolidate its position by preemptively attacking India, aiming to secure strategic passages in the Himalayas and safeguard against the anticipated rise of its Indian neighbor.
Indian and Chinese troops side by side in the Himalayas.
6/ China’s Actions.
In recent years, China’s actions have revealed an aggressive attitude on the international stage, particularly in the South China Sea. This aggression is evidenced by the strengthening of its military and navy, as well as the establishment of military bases along the border with India, equipped for rapid troop deployment through infrastructure such as highways, ports, and suitable bridges.
China is also developing specific military equipment tailored for the extreme conditions of mountain warfare, demonstrating its readiness for a potential conflict in this region. Recent clashes, such as the one in 2020 resulting in over 40 deaths, have heightened tensions, which are constantly palpable.
Even Indian authorities perceive this rising tension, leading to military responses.
As an anecdote, India has recently developed a next-generation ballistic missile nicknamed the “Chinese killer,” illustrating the intensity of regional rivalries.
As for Taiwan, China regularly conducts military exercises that paralyze the island, demonstrating its ability to impose an effective blockade.
In response to this increasing Chinese aggression, the United States is reacting by strengthening its military presence in South Asia and the Philippines, and by maintaining alliances with countries like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. This situation is generating extreme tensions in the region.
Confrontation between two Chinese ships and one Philippine ship.
But China has no economic interest in going to war !
Indeed, the calculation of accepting a certain short-term loss for significant long-term gains is a strategy that has been implemented by major economic powers throughout history. Examples include Nazi Germany and the USSR, Napoleon and England, or France and Germany in 1914. This is a typical argument in the business world, but it may be viewed differently by the nationalists in power in China. That is to say, engaging in a military and confrontational phase for 5 years, with the aim of reaping benefits for decades thereafter.
In conclusion, it is evident that each argument, taken individually, is not sufficient to justify action. A war is not triggered simply because there is a surplus of labor. A conflict is not initiated because of a fear of being surpassed by a neighbor in 26 years. War is not entered into due to an isolated economic crisis. However, the combination of all these factors, along with China’s desire to reclaim its past geopolitical power, as well as a West that still retains some capacity for response, leads me to believe that conflict is imminent. When I say imminent, I mean within a few years, probably before 2030.
IV. Monitoring the Course of Events.
1.
Is essential to monitor China’s discourse regarding its neighbors. A recent example is China’s official map that includes territories claimed by several of its neighbors.
2.
Military escalation in Kashmir and the Himalayas is another point to closely monitor. China is actively building military installations in these areas, which represents an aggressive stance towards India. Negotiations are underway to push back the border by 20 km toward China.
3.
The evolution of alliances and significant actions of China within the BRICS, military provocations, as well as any potential escalation, must be closely monitored.
V. Conclusion.
We are witnessing a face-off between the first and second world powers, gradually entering into a power struggle to dominate parts of the world. The first world power, though declining, remains very strong but is reaching its limits, while China is emerging as the dominant economic power and aims to secure a geopolitical position commensurate with its economic weight.
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